UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Preview and Predictions

Smack dab in the middle of a potentially major gambling controversy, the show rolls on, and the UFC is once again at home inside the Apex for another Fight Night. This time, they will showcase the welterweight division as Gabriel Bonfim takes on Randy Brown in the main event. Both fighters come into this clash on the heels of big wins, as Bonfim most recently defeated former title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, and Brown absolutely molly-whopped Nicolas Dalby with a right hook in the second round of their clash back in April. A win would make it four straight for “Marretinha” as he looks to make himself a household name in the welterweight division. For Brown, a victory would move his record to 5-1 over his last six bouts, with the lone loss coming via split decision to Bryan Battle.

In the co-main event, flyweights get after it as divisional mainstay Matt Schnell takes on Joseph Morales. Morales returned to the promotion via The Ultimate Fighter after sporting a 1-2 record the first time he was on the roster. A couple wins on the regional scene earned him a spot in the TUF house, and a successful run on the show led to his reappearance under the official UFC banner. Schnell is also a veteran of TUF, competing in Season 24. He has fought 14 times for the biggest MMA promotion in the world, holding steady at 7-7 inside the organization. He needs a win to remain relevant and keep his roster spot secure.

Also on the main card is the older brother of one of the main event combatants. Ismael Bonfim is taking on Chris Padilla at lightweight. He will not only be looking to bolster the mindset of his little brother heading into the main event but also trying to avoid losing back-to-back fights. His last time in the cage, the doctor halted his fight after he ate a gnarly question-mark kick from Nazim Sadykhov in the first round that made him unable to see. There is a lot on the line this weekend for the Bonfim family.

UFC Vegas 111 airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.
The main event fighters both fought Nicolas Dalby, with Bonfim losing and Brown winning against “Danish Dynamite”; can we trust the transitive property of MMA?

Sumian: This is a classic contender-versus-veteran matchup between two pretty exciting welterweights. Randy Brown has only lost twice since Apr. 2021 and has quietly compiled an 8-2 record. On other hand, Gabriel Bonfim is 18-1 in his professional career and is coming off the biggest win of his career at the expense of Stephen Thompson in Jul. 2025. Brown will look to play spoiler and steal Bonfim’s top-15 ranking, while the Brazilian will look to make a big statement and secure himself a top-10 opponent in his next Octagon showing.

Brown has come a long way since earning a UFC contract off Looking for a Fight almost a decade ago. He has fought some of the best fighters in the welterweight division, including Belal Muhammad, Vicente Luque, Niko Price and Jack Della Maddalena. Unfortunately, Brown was never able to get to the next level as a top-tier competitor in the division, but he has been a welterweight staple for some time and has enjoyed a successful UFC career thus far. Brown is a very well-rounded fighter. He has a deep gas tank and is capable of dragging his opponent to a hard fought decision. He is also capable of finishing fights and exploiting his opponents’ weaknesses. At this point, Brown is not fighting for a UFC title and is more than likely okay with that. He is a fantastic veteran who is still capable of beating a majority of the 170-pound division and will likely continue to do so for the next couple of years. A win over Bonfim will probably put Brown in the top-15, but he is still far away from ever competing for gold.

Bonfim is one of the few rising contenders in the welterweight division. He is a spectacular grappler, powerful and young enough to make a huge splash in the welterweight division. His only loss occurred in Nov. 2023, courtesy of Nicolas Dalby. Besides that, he has been near perfect and will definitely find himself facing a top-10 welterweight if he can get past Brown. Bonfim will want to utilize his expertise and get this fight to the ground where he can grapple towards a finish or decision.

I really like Bonfim as a prospect, but Brown is going to play spoiler here to win a closely contested decision. He will probably have the better gas tank between the two and has fought the better competition between the two. Brown will use his well-roundedness to survive Bonfim’s grappling and win a scrappy decision.

Petela: Maybe I’m a cynic, or just a grumpy old man, but I am much less optimistic about the path forward for Gabriel Bonfim. It also could be because I don’t think he earned that last victory over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Regardless, I think his ceiling is somewhere in the bottom half of the ranking and not really a threat to ever contend for the title.

This fight will be entertaining and, probably, closely contested, but a Randy Brown victory is in store. He is much more dangerous on the feet and isn’t incompetent on the canvas. Bonfim will have the grappling edge, but he won’t be able to get the fight into his world very easily. The takedown defense of Brown will wind up with the fighters along the side of the cage in clinch situations on more than a few occasions. Particularly with his back against the cage, Brown will be able to land elbows and knees from the clinch that don’t look that crippling, but, in their totality, they will slow down Bonfim and take the pop out of his entries and level changes. Adding onto that, he will be in a funky headspace, because his brother lost earlier in the night, and those little repetitive shots will be a difference maker. By the later rounds, it will be one-way traffic, and Brown will wind up getting a late TKO victory.

Joseph Morales has not yet lost in his second stint inside the UFC; will he have the skills to hand Matt Schnell his fourth loss in his last five fights?

Petela: This is actually a decent matchup for Matt Schnell, because Joseph Morales isn’t known as a ferocious puncher or knockout artist. Schnell is a forward-pressure fighter who takes big risks in the hope of big rewards. Unfortunately, that has led to a seriously compromised chin on the Louisiana fighter. I think this fight will look like a lot of Schnell fights with a frenetic pace, wild punches and kicks, and an aggressive takedown attempt that is more impressive for its speed than its technique.

I don’t think Schnell will be able to force Morales into a mistake with his style and pace. This go-around for Morales has been much more impressive, and that is due in no small part to his patience and maturity in the cage. He will ride out the early storm of Schnell, methodically land strikes while soundly defending the chaos from Schnell, and work his way to a third straight victory inside the UFC on his redemption run.

Sumian: Matt Schnell has that dog in him. Yes, he has suffered some brutal losses, but he is as game as they come. I don’t think Joseph Morales brings enough to the table to take out Schnell. Schnell will be able to withstand any punishment, control Morales, and win a 29-28 decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Why is Mayra Bueno Silva still on the roster? She is on a three-fight losing streak and has been extremely unimpressive since the second half of 2023. If he suffers a fourth straight loss, I cannot imagine the UFC keeps her around.

Petela: Miles Johns. He has lost two in a row and might be let go if he drops a third straight. Clearly, Andrew is 100-percent correct, and, if he hadn’t already mentioned Bueno Silva, she would have been my pick. It is time for her to be released, as there is no value added by keeping her around.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes. This one just jumps out at me, because the “Tiny Tornado” has a way of making fun fights. I think going up against another spark plug like Denise Gomes will be a great matchup that is nonstop action for the entirety of the contest.

Sumian: The welterweight matchup between Muslim Salikhov and Uros Medic is going to be the best fight of the night, mark my words. These two combine for 24 total knockouts, and someone is going to go to sleep. Fireworks incoming.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Hyder Amil. He suffered his first professional loss, but will be coming back with a vengeance. He will finish Jamall Emmers and earn himself a nice little bonus.

Petela: Christopher Leroy Duncan. He is a knockout artist and is coming off a fantastic win over Eryk Anders. He has a fun matchup against fellow knockout artist Marco Tulio, and I think he gets the job done in highlight reel fashion.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Butterscotch hard candies. Muslim Salikhov is on this card, and he is one or two years away from carrying them around in his pocket because he is so old. I think the old-timer gets one last win before the end of his career, so celebrate with some hard candies – you know, the ones that your grandparents had on them 24/7.

Sumian: Almond Joy. They are generally found in most assortments of candy, yet nobody wants them. This card is part of an assortment, and it is a card that will take place and nothing more. It is part of the assortment and recipe the UFC currently offers, but many still wonder why it is included.