UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, Nov. 15, New York City hosts the annual star-studded UFC pay-per-view event held inside the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden. With the exception of 2020, the UFC has hosted an annual flagship event there every year since the State of New York legalized mixed martial arts in 2016, and this year is no different. Headlined by a pair of title fights, UFC 322 has big names from top to bottom and is sure not to disappoint.

In the main event, former lightweight titleholder Islam Makhachev looks to do something his mentor and coach Khabib Nurmagomedov didn’t do, and that is win titles in two weight classes. With his friend Belal Muhammad no longer wearing the belt at welterweight, Makhachev left behind his lightweight title and decided to move up to challenge Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight championship. Newly minted champion Della Maddalena is looking to become the first man to defeat Makhachev since Adriano Martins knocked him out a decade ago. It has been almost as long since Della Maddalena tasted defeat, being unbeaten since 2016.

Similarly in the co-main event, former two-time women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili moves up to flyweight to try and achieve double-champ status, as she clashes with divisional great Valentina Shevchenko. Since losing a split-decision in her rematch against Rose Namajunas, Zhang has gone unbeaten and practically cleared out the strawweight division. Many fans and pundits thought that Tatiana Suarez would be the one to give her trouble, but Zhang won a lopsided decision in that fight.

Now moving up to flyweight, Zhang will look to stop Shevchenko from going on another historic run as champion. With seven title defenses to her credit on her first reign, Shevchenko started her second time as champion by defeating outstanding kickboxer Manon Fiorot. She looks to make it just the beginning of another long run at the top by defeating Zhang and sending her back down to strawweight.

Also on the main card is a matchup between two potential future welterweight champions, as Sean Brady takes on undefeated Michael Morales. With the lone setback of his career coming against former champion Muhammad, Brady has rebounded nicely with three straight wins. This is Morales’ second top-tier opponent, as he recently dispatched former title challenger Gilbert Burns in the first round of their main event fight back in May. The other welterweight fight on this main card pits former champion Leon Edwards against rising fan favorite Carlos Prates. Opening the main card is a lightweight fight between Beneil Dariush and French standout Benoit Saint-Denis.

The UFC 322 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPNEWS at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.
This is the first title defense for Jack Della Maddalena; can he thwart Islam Makhachev’s attempt to become a two division champion?

Sumian: It is finally here, the biggest pay-per-view of the year, headlined by the biggest fight of the year. Jack Della Maddalena is in a difficult position. Despite being the newly crowned welterweight champion, it seems like the storyline revolving around UFC 322 is Islam Makhachev’s journey to becoming a two-division champion. In normal circumstances, the spotlight would be on Della Maddalena defending his belt for the first time. This weekend, it seems like that is not the case, and everything revolves around Makhachev realizing his so-called destiny. Will he? That’s an entirely different question.

Della Maddalena has looked better and better in every UFC performance. Prior to winning the title, he was able to mount a comeback against the highly skilled Gilbert Burns and score a third-round TKO inches from defeat. He followed up this performance with a decision victory over former champion Belal Muhammad to take the title. Della Maddalena looked sharp and displayed some of the highest level striking in the UFC today. The UFC has done a fantastic job building the champion up to his throne. He has gradually faced stiffer competition while becoming a complete fighter. If he is able to defeat Makhacev, he will be on his way to becoming one of the biggest stars in the UFC today.

Makhachev’s title reign at lightweight has been fun, to say the least. However, it is impressive given the competition he has faced. His first title defense was a Fight of the Night performance against Alexander Volkanovski, which was the superfight everyone wanted in 2023. Makhachev convincingly won, but it was a valiant showing from Volkanovski. His next three title defenses came at the expense of a short-notice Volkanovski, an out-of-prime Dustin Poirier, and short-notice Renato Moicano. The resume doesn’t necessarily scream dominance, but Makhachev did his job and defended the title one after the other. For the former lightweight champion, this is easily the most difficult challenge of his MMA career, given the increase in weight and larger opponent. He has generally enjoyed a size and strength advantage at lightweight, and this may no longer be the case at his new home of 170 pounds.

Della Maddalena has shown some pretty elite takedown defense, and he has some of the sharpest striking in MMA today. His showing against Muhammad gave me a lot more confidence for his chances on Saturday night. On the other hand, Makhachev is an absolute tank, and it seems like he is enjoying the increase in strength and power as a welterweight.

I think this fight has the potential to be a Fight of the Year candidate. I see the challenger choosing to stand with the champion and putting on a back-and-forth brawl for the first half of the fight. Both will have success in the stand-up and show visible signs of damage on the face. In Round 4, Makhachev will be able to hurt the champion with a clean combination and finish the fight with a choke of his choice to become the new UFC welterweight champion. There are so many intriguing matchups for Makhachev at welterweight, and I am very much looking forward to them.

Petela: First and foremost, let’s address the idea that Islam Makhachev “convincingly” beat Alexander Volkanovski in their first meeting. He squeaked that one out by the skin of his teeth, and if the fight was a minute longer, he probably would have gotten stopped.

Now, when it comes to this weekend’s main event, I am going to say something that may not be true in all facets of life, but it is in fighting – size matters. There is no way Jack Della Maddalena could ever make the lightweight limit, so while Makhachev is big for that division, he won’t be big at welterweight. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t describe him as undersized, but he won’t be nearly as imposing facing off against a true natural welterweight like Della Maddalena. The gym stories of Makhachev throwing around light heavyweights like Luke Rockhold are impressive, but until he manhandles someone bigger than him in a live fight, I have my doubts.

In his title winning performance, Della Maddalena was able to thwart most of the offensive wrestling attempts of Belal Muhammad, a friend of Makhachev. I don’t see that being any different this weekend. Muhammad may not be the same level of wrestler as his Dagestani pal, but he is incredibly technical and a naturally bigger man than Makhachev. The counter-wrestling and scrambling ability of Della Maddalena will prove to be an issue that Makhachev struggles to solve. It will tire him out having to try and keep Della Maddalena from escaping his grasp over and over again. He simply won’t be able to keep the Aussie down, figuratively or literally, which will affect Makhachev both physically and mentally.

Outside of his fight with Volkanovski, a few moments in his clash with Arman Tsarukyan, and the one momentary lapse in the Adriano Martins fight, we have not seen Makhachev have to deal with and work through adversity. How does he fare when he is forced into a kickboxing match with a better striker, because Plan A isn’t working? I don’t think it goes well. He isn’t a one-trick pony, but Makhachev isn’t as well-rounded as Della Maddalena, and that will haunt him this weekend.

After too many failed takedown attempts slow him down, Makhachev will be hesitant to keep after it, and he will, instead, settle for a stand-up fight for long stretches of this bout. That is not a recipe for success. Della Maddalena will start to pick him apart in Round 4, and, by Round 5, it will be one-way traffic for the champion as he rolls to victory.

Zhang Weili is also looking to become a two-division champion; how does she fare against the divisional stalwart that is incumbent champion Valentina Shevchenko?

Petela: This fight is puzzling. Valentina Shevchenko should be slowing down as the division catches up to her, talent-wise, so it would make sense that this title run for her isn’t nearly as dominant or long as the first time she held the belt. However, she isn’t fighting a top-ranked contender in her division. Instead, she’s taking on a natural strawweight who is moving up to try and bolster her legacy. I would tend to think that the size discrepancy would be the biggest factor, as Shevchenko is heavy in the clinch and can usually dictate where the fight takes place with her long-range striking and stellar Judo skills. However, the speed of Zhang might be more impactful than the size and strength of Shevchenko. Zhang might just be able to avoid being bullied in the clinch by staying out of those situations with lateral movement.

Ultimately, I think that it depends on how close to a peak performance we see from Valentina Shevchenko. Prime vs. prime, I don’t think Zhang could hang with “Bullet,” but Shevchenko has lost half a step, so this should be competitive. Early on in the fight, I expect Zhang to use her speed to land impactful shots and then get out of danger, but she will tire towards the middle of the fight from having to do a lot of backwards and lateral movement. Shevchenko takes over late, and her strength advantage is amplified when the two women are starting to fatigue. Split decision win for Shevchenko. The third round will be split on the scorecards and will mark the turning point of the fight.

Sumian: My colleague’s assessment is sound, and I agree with all of it. The only difference is that I am picking Zhang to win the split decision instead of the champion. At this point in their careers, Zhang should be stronger and a fresher fighter. She will be able to outpower Shevchenko and get this fight to the ground a couple of times, which will make all the difference. It would have been fascinating to see this fight a few years ago when they were both at their best, but this will still be a memorable moment for women’s MMA.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 322?

Sumian: This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but Michael Morales. I am picking Morales to upset the second-ranked Sean Brady and find himself challenging for a title in 2026. Brady is fantastic, but I do not think I would be alone in believing that Morales is already a better fighter than Leon Edwards. He is faster, stronger, and extremely versatile. He will steal the show on Saturday with a second round TKO of Brady and take the spotlight.

Petela: Mackenzie Dern. The recently minted strawweight champion will be sitting pretty after this weekend. Former champion Zhang Weili will fail in her bid to become a two-division champion and take a beating in the process. Therefore, if she decides to move back down to strawweight and try to recapture the belt she gave up voluntarily, she will be dealing not only with the bigger weight cut, but also the longstanding wear and tear of a war with Shevchenko. That will make Dern look great when the pair clash, and the new strawweight champion will be able to successfully defend her belt against one of the best fighters in the history of women’s MMA.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 322?

Petela: Beneil Dariush. Where does he go from here, win or lose? If he wins, he’s beaten a guy who was more hype than talent in Benoit Saint-Denis, but if he loses, he’s lost to a guy who hasn’t been able to beat elite talent. This just seems like a lose-lose situation. I don’t see how he comes out of this event with much momentum, regardless of how he performs.

Sumian: Jack Della Maddalena. It has to be tough defending your title against one of the pound-for-pound kings in your first defense. He will definitely have his moments, but it would have been nice to see him defend against a true welterweight to see what he is capable of. Nevertheless, I am sure he will make a nice payday for taking this fight.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: He is not going to get cut if he loses, but Bo Nickal is going to have a lot of eyes on him come Saturday night. He is taking on Rodolfo Vieira this time around and should be able to get back on track after a TKO loss to Reinier de Ridder early this year. If he suffers another loss, expect the Nickal hype to significantly cool for the time being.

Petela: Gerald Meerschaert. How many times are they going to send GM3 out there to get clobbered? Kyle Daukaus isn’t exactly a title contender, but he is younger, faster, and more durable than Meerschaert. This one doesn’t end well for the Wisconsinite, and it’s probably his last time fighting under the UFC banner.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: This card is loaded. The fact that Chepe Mariscal and Pat Sabatini are opening the show is mind-blowing. For all fans who have tickets, don’t be one of the fools who rolls in late and misses this matchup. Six straight wins since joining the UFC for Mariscal, including a Fight of the Night bonus in his win over Morgan Charriere. The style matchup for him against a technical grappler like Sabatini will be fun to watch. Philadelphia’s Sabatini has won back-to-back fights and is looking to make one last run towards the top of the featherweight division. This is definitely an overlooked fight on a card full of potentially explosive fights.

Sumian: The middleweight clash between Roman Koplov and Gregory Rodrigues could easily be a main-card fight. These two are monster finishers and combine for 23 knockouts. This fight will be chaotic and fun for as long as it lasts.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: There are going to be a lot of finishes on this card, but Beneil Dariush and Beniot Saint-Denis are my pick for the Fight of the Night honors. There is never a dull moment inside the Octagon when these two compete, and Saturday will be no different.

Petela: Sean Brady. His loss to Belal Muhammad slowed down his hype train, but he has looked better than ever since that experience. This weekend, he halts the momentum of Michael Morales and earns some extra cash for his pocket along the way.

Pair this card with…

Petela: It is bagels for two reasons. One, because it is New York City, and that’s where they originated in my opinion. Two, because that is how many titles change hands this weekend. Both incumbents retain gold and remain wrapped in gold.

Sumian: There are so many good options to go with for such an incredible card. However, I am going to stay true to New York. One of my favorite places for pizza in NYC is Prince Street Pizza. Recently, they have opened a location in Los Angeles near my area, and I intend to pick up several boxes to enjoy with my friends as we kick back for the card of the year.