UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Preview and Predictions

Back in the country where the Gracies made jiu-jitsu famous, the UFC puts on a Fight Night with the promotion’s all-time submission record holder sitting atop the card in Rio de Janeiro. Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira will try and get a win in his home country after suffering a devastating knockout in a vacant title fight against now-champion Ilia Topuria. Standing in his way is Polish standout Mateusz Gamrot. With a lone split decision loss as his only setback in his last five fights, Gamrot will look to bolster his chances at a shot against Topuria in the near future by taking out a former champion.

The co-main event also features a Brazilian former champion as Deiveson Figueiredo tries to stop himself from losing a third fight in a row and Montel Jackson looks to notch the biggest victory of his career.

UFC Rio airs live from the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.
Charles Oliveira got viciously knocked out by Ilia Topuria in his last fight; can the former champion get back on track and stop the momentum of rising star Mateusz Gamrot?

Sumian: All in all, this is a pretty darn good fight night, even though we are no longer getting Charles Oliveira versus Rafael Fiziev. Mateusz Gamrot lacks the excitement that Fiziev would have brought to the table, but he is without a doubt, a worthy replacement. This fight is going to come down to Oliveira, and how he will hold up after suffering one of the most brutal knockouts of his career less than four months ago. If he is 75-percent recovered, he has the skills and experience to win this fight. If not, we could be in for a lackluster Gamrot decision victory.

Gamrot is a good fighter, make no mistake. Is he exciting? Sometimes. Will he ever fight for a UFC title? Probably not, but stranger things have happened. Gamrot is not a fighter that the UFC wants, but a fighter they need. If a lightweight is able to get past Gamrot, then you know they are ready for the big leagues and capable of potentially challenging for the belt in the future. He does everything fairly well, but his strength is undoubtedly his wrestling and grappling abilities. He knows when to play it safe and utilize his strengths to secure a victory. Surprisingly, Gamrot started off his UFC campaign as a prolific finisher. He lost a split decision to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut and went on to secure three victories by way of knockout or submission. Since then, he has only suffered two losses, courtesy of Beneil Darisuh and Dan Hooker, while earning two Fight of the Night bonuses. Gamrot is going to be a top-ten lightweight for a while, given his strengths and standing in the division. If he is able to get past Oliveira, he will secure a top-five lightweight ranking.

I remember watching Oliveira get brutally knocked out by Cub Swanson back in 2012. Up until Jun., 2025, that was definitely the most brutal loss of his career. Less than four months ago, the former UFC light champion got flatlined by Ilia Topuria in what should be in the running for Knockout of the Year. At 35 years of age, the Brazilian is coming to the end of his career. The lightweight division is stacked with contenders, and it is not unreasonable to question Oliveira’s chin and durability after what happened in June of this year. Still, Oliveira is always game. Even when he looks defeated, he finds a way to remain competitive and secure unlikely victories despite the odds being stacked against him. At this stage in his career, the former champion is so experienced and can stand or grapple with the best of the best.

My brain tells me Gamrot will take a decision victory come Saturday. However, I am going with the former champion. I think there is still some left in the tank, and he will be motivated to rebound from that brutal loss and perform in front of a hometown crowd. Oliveira will hand Gamrot his first loss by finish before the end of the third round.

Petela: In the words of Jan Blachowicz, this weekend, we will see the legendary Polish power on display but it will be in lightweight form. Call me a pessimist if you must, but I do not think the Charles Oliveira of a couple years ago will ever be seen again. His title aspirations are over and he is sub-prime. That leads me to believe that he gets caught again in this fight. Mateusz Gamrot isn’t the same type of puncher as Ilia Topuria, but I believe that Topuria has softened up the chin of Oliveira to a point that the first stiff jab will make Oliveira think twice about whether or not he should have taken this fight. First-round knockout win for Gamrot.

Deiveson Figueiredo has lost two fights in a row for the first time in his career; can he avoid a three-fight skid by defeating Montel Jackson?

Petela: Nope. This will mark the beginning of the end for Deiveson Figueiredo. Up until now, he has lost only to elite competition. Petr Yan is a former titleholder, and Cory Sandhagen just went the distance with the current champion, Merab Dvalishvili. With all respect to Montel Jackson, he is not on the same level as the aforementioned fighters.

Figueiredo is 37 years old, and, while those of us who are the same age as him still sometimes feel like we are as good as we were a few years back, it simply isn’t true. A half-step slower physically, even though he has the fight IQ of a veteran, will be his downfall. This is one of those fights where fans will be looking back saying that just a couple years ago Figueiredo would have walked right through Jackson, but this weekend, he will get outworked en route to a decision loss.

Sumian: This a monumental opportunity for Montel Jackson. A win over Deiveson Figueiredo will launch him into the top ten of the stacked bantamweight division and put him two fights away from a title shot. Due to Merab Dvalishvili’s dominance as a champion, the division is in need of fresh contenders, and Jackson seems to have the skillset necessary to compete at the highest level. Figgy is going to be giving up five inches in height and seven inches in reach. If he tries to stand and box with Jackson, I don’t see it going well for the former flyweight champion. He will need to utilize his ground game to have any success in this fight. That being said, the Brazilian always has the ability to land that one shot that sends his opponent to the shadowrealm. Unfortunately for him, this will not be the case. Jackson by unanimous decision in dominant fashion.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has to be Karolina Kowalkiewicz. After suffering a five-fight losing streak between 2018 to 2021, the former strawweight title challenger battled back and secured four victories in a row. However, she has most recently suffered a two-fight losing streak and is 39 years old. Another loss, and it will likely be the end of her time in the UFC.

Petela: I will say it is Deiveson Figueiredo. Where does he go from here? He’s too big to go back down to flyweight and not in his prime anymore, so he doesn’t have what it takes to make a run at bantamweight gold. With a loss this weekend, he should probably hang up the gloves and move on to his next chapter of life.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter. Carpenter is making his fourth UFC appearance and coming off the first loss of his career. Those fights are always interesting to see if he has the mentality to bounce back better than ever, or if he’s not the same fighter he was before tasting defeat in a professional MMA fight.

Sumian: It is not a sleeper by any means but the welterweight clash between Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez is my favorite fight on this card. There will be blood and violence to go around and one of these men will finish the fight in exciting fashion.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Mario Pinto. He is facing fellow heavyweight knockout artist Jhonata Diniz, but will be the one to come out on top. Pinto by first-round knockout.

Petela: I will stay in the heavyweight division and go with Vitor Petrino. Thomas Petersen isn’t the fastest moving heavyweight on the roster, which will make him susceptible to a stiff counter that closes the show and earns Petrino some extra money.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Pierogis. I’m riding with my Polish brethren Mateusz Gamrot this weekend, and there is no better fight-night food than a hot plate of Pierogis as you watch a miniature version of the legendary Polish power in action.

Sumian: Charles Oliveira highlight videos. His time as a UFC competitor is coming to an end sooner than people think. Oliveira is one of those fights that won’t be retired by age, but due to sheer damage and durability issues. He has been one of the most memorable and well liked fighters of the modern era and has been a UFC competitor since 2010 which is absolutely insane. Enjoy him while he is here because he will certainly be missed!