UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Preview and Predictions

Two titles are on the line this weekend as the UFC heads overseas for UFC 321. From inside the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, the heavyweight championship and women’s strawweight championship will both be on the line in front of a packed stadium.

In the main event, heavyweight Tom Aspinall will look to make the first defense of his undisputed championship, since being promoted to full champion upon the retirement of Jon Jones. Standing in his way is former interim champion and undisputed title contender Cyril Gane. On the heels of a split decision win over Alexander Volkov, Gane gets another shot to claim the undisputed title that has evaded him thus far in his career.

The co-main event will see the vacant strawweight championship be awarded to either Mackenzie Dern or Virna Jandiroba. The pair met once before, five years ago, with Dern scoring a unanimous decision victory. This time, the two outstanding grapplers will meet over, potentially, five rounds and 25 minutes with gold at stake.

Also on the main card is a bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista. Nurmagomedov is looking to rebound from the first loss of his professional career after coming up short against current champion Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista has rattled off eight consecutive wins, and, most notably, his last two victories have been over big names in former UFC champion Jose Aldo and former Bellator champion Patchy Mix.

The UFC 321 preliminary card airs live on ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET, followed by the main card on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 2 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

Tom Aspinall has won performance bonuses in his last three fights; can the British fighter make it four straight post-fight bonuses en route to defending his undisputed heavyweight championship?

Sumian: It is a shame how much of prime Tom Aspinall we have wasted away waiting for a fight with Jon Jones to happen, which was, realistically, never going to take place. Aspinall has competed twice since Nov. 2023 and will turn 33 years old next year. Yes, the heavyweight longevity in the UFC seems to be higher than average, but it would have been nice to see Aspinall fight at least twice more since winning the interim UFC heavyweight championship. Nevertheless, the Jones drama is behind us, for better or worse, and it is now time to focus on Aspinall and his stellar rise to the throne at heavyweight.

The way Aspinall moves at heavyweight is something I have never seen before. He has impeccable boxing, crisp and disciplined head movement, slick submissions and is able to feint and slip like a lightweight would. The only setback the champ has had was back in 2022 when he suffered a knee injury against Curtis Blaydes. Since returning, he has looked even better and continues to make light work of a heavyweight division that seems miles behind him. The best thing Aspinall can do right now is focus on compiling as many title defenses as possible. At this rate, I would place a significant wager that he will become the longest reigning heavyweight champion in UFC history. This will open up a bunch of doors for him in the future, and there will be big fights to make as he becomes even more of a household name in the world of mixed martial arts. The sky is the limit for Aspinall, but he will first need to solidify himself as the best UFC heavyweight by taking on top-ranked Ciryl Gane.

What is there left to say about Gane at this point in his career? It seems like he has been an active UFC heavyweight for decades, but, in truth, it has only been six years. Gane has been near perfect in his UFC campaign except for two losses courtesy of Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Since losing to Jones for the vacant UFC heavyweight championship, he has recorded a 2-0 record at the expense of Serghei Spivac and Alexander Volkov. I say “recorded,” because he had no business earning a victory over Volkov in Dec. 2024. To all viewers, it was clear that Volkov was the superior fighter that evening and was utterly robbed of a well-deserved victory. Gane is a great striker, but he has certainly slowed down throughout his UFC career. He was already a slow starter, and he desperately needs to find that aggression and tenacity if he is going to attempt to defeat a surging Aspinall. Still, Gane can strike with the best and should always be considered dangerous on the feet.

Technically, this is a title fight between the champion and the number-one contender and should be competitive. That will not be the case. Aspinall is going to do Aspinall things and end this fight before the end of the first round. He will stay light on his feet, land some crisp jabs and leg kicks, and get this fight to the ground to lock up a submission. The Aspinall reign officially starts now, and it will be here to stay.

Petela: I don’t think I’ve been less excited about a heavyweight championship fight than I am this one. Even the Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic fight was more interesting, because, at least in that one, both of them were past their primes. This is a fight between the most well-rounded fighter in the division and a completely one-dimensional fighter, who is a liability when he has a competent wrestler or grappler on top of him. This will be one-way traffic, and it won’t take long at all to be over. Tim Aspinall runs through Cyril Gane, and the only exciting part is the actual finish, as well as, hopefull,y a gnarly post-fight callout of Jones for retiring and ducking a title-unification fight.

The co-main event is a rematch; will Mackenzie Dern be able to score another win over Virna Jandiroba and claim the vacant strawweight championship?

Petela: This fight is a great stylistic matchup for Mackenzie Dern. Everyone knows how talented she is as a grappler, but her biggest weakness has always been that she is a lot better at blocking punches with her face than she is avoiding them or rolling with them. The threat of the knockout isn’t too great against Virna Jandiroba. Just once in her professional career has she won via knockout, and that was due to her opponent suffering an arm injury. We will see Dern striking with reckless abandon, and not afraid of getting clipped or of being taken down, because she’s comfortable from her back.

That allows fans the opportunity to see a fun fight. Dern will be aggressive from the jump, looking to claim the title in bold fashion with hellacious punches that, admittedly, are a bit telegraphed and not the most crisp. She’ll either score a quick knockout, or this will turn into an elite grappling match with punches from the ground. It will definitely be a win-win for fans. My money is on the early knockout. Something tells me that Dern lands a brutal punch that Jandiroba doesn’t see coming due to the weird angle it is thrown from. And, then, she finishes the fight with some ground-and-pound. Dern grabs the belt before the first round is over.

Sumian: Believe me, the UFC is praying that is the case. The worst thing that could happen to the UFC this weekend is Virna Jandiroba winning. Mackenzie Dern is attractive, marketable, and widely popular with both hardcore and casual MMA fans. Having her be the new face of women’s MMA is what the UFC is ultimately hoping for going forward.

Yes, Dern defeated Jandiroba back in Dec. 2020 during their first meeting. However, things have certainly changed since then. Jandiroba has become a much better fighter since then and has certainly faced better competition than Dern. Jandiroba is currently ranked number-one in the division and is on a five-fight winning streak, at the expense of Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez, Loopy Godinez, Amanda Lemos, and Yan Xiaonan. She is well-rounded, but, ultimately, her bread and butter is her submission game. She will have to bring it all to the table, if she hopes to take the UFC’s golden girl Dern.

Since her arrival, Dern has received different treatment from the UFC. She has always been given big opportunities and strategically placed on fight cards due to her popularity and following. However, she has never quite lived up to the hype and has suffered a few setbacks while she attempted to climb the strawweight ladder. This time around, it only took two victories to earn a title shot, and neither of them were against a top-five ranked strawweight. At this point, it is just absurd how badly the UFC wants her to take the belt and cash in on her following. Dern is a prolific grappler, but she has always struggled against upper-tier fighters. Come Saturday, we will find out just how ready she is for the main stage.

Jandiroba is going to win this fight. She is a completely different fighter since facing Dern in 2020, and it will show on Saturday. There is a reality where Dern is simply not great, but just good, and will always be good. Jandiroba takes a 49-46 decision to become the new strawweight champion of the world.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 318?

Sumian: This one pains me to say, but it is Jailton Almeida. I think he will be able to submit Volkov in impressive fashion and find himself fighting for the heavyweight title in 2026. This is completely unfair to Volkov, who got robbed last December and should be the one fighting Aspinall, but it is what it is. Almeida by second-round submission.

Petela: Umar Nurmagomedov. He will win in impressive fashion and finish Mario Bautista. That sets him up for a rematch against Merab Dvalishvili with gold on the line after Dvalishvili runs through Petr Yan when that pair meet up again.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 318?

Petela: Alexander Volkov. He was making another impressive run towards the top of the heavyweight division until losing a split decision to Ciryl Gane last December. However, a loss is a loss, and, when you combine that with a submission loss this weekend, he will have two straight losses, and he is getting older at 36 years old. This might be too big of a setback for him to overcome, if he has any hopes for a run at the championship.

Sumian: Umar Nurmagomedov. I really think Bautista is going to do the darn thing and upset Nurmagomedov. This will not set the former title challenger back too much, given his name power and popularity, but it will certainly bring his aura back to Earth.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Alexksandar Rakic is on a three-fight losing streak. However, they are all against top light heavyweights, including two former champions in Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev. That being said, a loss on Saturday to Azamat Murzakanov undoubtedly closes the door on Rakic being able to get remotely close to title contention ever again. He is in desperate need of a win if he wants to stay relevant.

Petela: Louie Sutherland. I know he’s making his promotional debut, but hear me out. You can’t come into the UFC and steal Chase Sherman’s nickname and then lose your first fight. It is a must-win right out of the gate, in my not so humble opinion.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Mateusz Rebecki vs. L’udovit Klein. Both of these Eastern European fighters are coming off of losses, which is a recipe for success. They are definitely middle-of-the-pack lightweight fighters, but have each shown moments of brilliance inside the Octagon. Whether it’s Rebecki snatching a submission, like he did against Roosevelt Roberts, or Klein scoring a TKO with a brutal kick to the body, a la his fight against AJ Cunningham, this one is going to be entertaining for as long as it lasts.

Sumian: The middleweight clash between Ikram Aliskerov and Park Jun-Yong is going to be fun, plain and simple. Both guys can hang for the long run, but also turn on the gas and finish fights. I can see this one having a wild back and forth first round before someone earning a stoppage victory in Round 2.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Chris Barnett. He will get a wacky finish and earn an extra $50,000 for his efforts. Always a good time, win or lose, when Barnett fights.

Petela: Jailton Almeida. Alexander Volkov’s length will work against him this weekend. It just seems to me like there will be too many openings for Almeida to latch onto a limb and bend it in directions that aren’t natural. Whether it is an armbar or a heel hook, he is getting the submission and extra cash.

Pair this card with…

Petela: You can’t drink all day if you don’t start in the morning. Celebrate Tom Aspinall cementing his legacy with a thorough thumping of Cyril Gane by throwing back a few Old Speckled Hens with a small group of close buddies who don’t need to drive anywhere for a while.

Sumian: For me, this card begins at 7 a.m. PT, and I could not be more thrilled. Thus, I am pairing this event with a good old-fashioned English breakfast with hash browns, and eventually moving onto a few Newcastles to close the show. We will finally get to see Tom Aspinall be the star of the show, and it will be his time to shine and take the mantle of heavyweight GOAT.