UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, Aug. 23, the UFC returns to Shangahai, China for only the second time in promotional history. The last time was almost eight years ago. Headlining the card will be a light heavyweight showdown between Brazil’s Johnny Walker and China’s Zhang Mingyang.

Zhang is entering the Octagon for the fourth time, and he is riding a 12-fight winning streak. Not only did his first three UFC fights end before the judges’ scorecards came into play, but he has not been to a decision since May 2017. His last fight was a first-round TKO of Anthony Smith last April. Walker, on the other hand, is a UFC vet, who entered the promotion off of the Contender Series back in 2018. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak, after getting finished by Volkan Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev. The Ankalaev fight was a rematch after the two had a fight end as a first-round no contest in Oct. 2023.

The co-main event features a catchweight bout, that was originally slated as a featherweight bout, between Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling. Ortega came back from a 19-month layoff in Feb. 2024 to submit Yair Rodriguez. However, in his last outing, in Sep. 2024, he lost a decision to Diego Lopes. Sterling had moved up to featherweight after losing the bantamweight title in 2023. He won a decision over Calvin Kattar, before dropping a decision to Movsar Evloev, both in 2024.

UFC Shanghai airs live on ESPN+ starting at 3 a.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Dan Kuhl preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

The main event fighters are on totally different trajectories; which man leaves with momentum in the light heavyweight division?

Sumian: Going to keep this relatively short and sweet. Zhang Mingyang is going to knock Johnny Walker out in the first round. It is crazy to think that, at one point in time, Walker was slated to be the biggest threat to Jon Jones and the light heavyweight crown. Unfortunately, those days are long gone, and he has since suffered four fairly brutal knockouts. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak, both by way of knockout. On the other hand, Zhang is flying high and coming off a one-sided beatdown of Anthony Smith that resulted in a first-round finish.

Despite Walker’s current status in the 205-pound division, he is still the best talent that Mingyang will face since joining the UFC. Walker is brutally powerful and extremely athletic. He has certainly shown signs of being a formidable contender at light heavyweight. However, it is hard to imagine a world where his chin is anything close to what it used to be after suffering back-to-back devastating knockouts. Zhang will be able to go chin hunting and eventually finish Walker by strikes in the back half of the first round.

Kuhl: To piggyback off of my colleague’s assessment of Johnny Walker, I was definitely in the camp that thought he would be the one to have the best shot of capturing the light heavyweight crown. However, after his third win in the UFC – a 38-second knockout of Misha Cirkunov – he dislocated his shoulder doing the worm in the Octagon while celebrating. IT all went downhill from there. He went 1-4 in his next five fights, seemed to be back in the saddle with three wins in a row, and then went 0-2-1 to get him where he is now, facing the Chinese buzzsaw Zhang Mingyang.

Zhang has not seen a second round since his fourth career loss in May 2018. Since then, he has gone 14-2 with all of those fights ending in the first round, and all but three ending in knockout. Not only is he on a 12-fight, first-round winning streak, but the last nine were by knockout, including his first three UFC fights. However, there is a single X-factor that could affect this battle, and that is the size difference.

Walker is coming in with a three-inch height advantage and a whopping seven-inch reach advantage. His rangy style could keep him out of Zhang’s’ danger zone, and, at least, make it into the second round. However, I do agree with my colleague that the hard-hitting Sanda stylist, who is six years younger, will be able to put Walker’s lights out before the final bell.

I have Zhang taking this by second-round knockout.

Two very different grapplers meet in the co-main event; will former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling be able to hand Brian Ortega his second straight loss?

Kuhl: It really surprises me that Aljamain Sterling is such a heavy favorite over Brian Ortega. I mean, sure, Ortega’s bread-and-butter is grappling, and Sterling is also a black belt in jiu-jitsu, as well as a former NCAA Division III wrestler. Both the clinch work, and the ground game should lend a slight advantage to Sterling. In addition, Ortega appears to have his best days behind him, even though he is only 34 years old. But, it’s hard to overlook his past work, his past opponents, and the fact that he has submitted some fantastic grapplers along the way.

Sterling is going to take a lot of takedown attempts, and he will be trying to showcase that he is the superior grappler. However, this is where Ortega shines. All it will take is one mistake on the ground, or a failed takedown attempt, to get Ortega into the right spot to lock up a submission. The line on Ortega by submission is currently at about +800, so, needless to say, this is an unpopular opinion, but I have Ortega pulling off the longshot submission in Round 3.

Sumian: Coming into this fight, I was already siding with Sterling to take a convincing unanimous decision over the once highly touted Ortega. For those who have not heard, Ortega had a brutal weight and the fight had to be moved to a catchweight of 153 pounds to accommodate his weight issues. This only convinces me more that Sterling will be able to dictate the grappling and pace of this fight and pull off a clear 30-27 decision victory. It is safe to say that Ortega will not enter this fight under the best circumstances and Sterling is not someone you can afford being physically unfit for. Sterling by unanimous decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: This is truly a make-or-break moment for Michel Pereira. He is on a two-fight losing streak and has utterly failed to live up to the hype that he had several years ago. Daukus returns to the UFC after compiling a 4-0 record in Cage Fury and will look to make a splash in his second stint with the UFC. Pereira desperately needs a win.

Kuhl: Austin Hubbard has already been bounced from the UFC once, and he may be about to get bounced again. His last four fights, since re-entering the promotion have landed him at 1-3, and he is currently on a two-fight losing streak. He is facing Rong Zhu on his home turf, and a loss will certainly send Hubbard aching once again.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Kuhl: Maheshate and Gauge Young are going to put on a show. Young has the ability to finish his opponents in just about any way, but he lost his UFC debut in April. Maheshate came into the UFC off the Contender Series, but he is only 2-3 and lost his last fight by decision to Nikolas Motta. Both of these guys need a win, and this one will be an exciting fight.

Sumian: Rong Zhu versus Austin Hubbard is going to be a fun lightweight clash on the preliminary card. I think these two have the ability to put on a fun fight with a lot of back-and-forth moments.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian:Sergei Pavlovich. He is going to stop Cortes-Acosta in brutal fashion and get his first finish in April of 2023.

Kuhl: Brian Ortega. If he hands Aljamain Sterling his first submission loss, as I suggested above, he will most certainly earn a bonus.

Pair this card with…

Kuhl: With seven Chinese fighters and seven American fighters on this card, there is only one pairing that makes sense – Trader Joe’s Philly Cheesesteak Bao Buns. If you have not tried these yet, you are seriously missing out. These things are easy to make and absolutely delicious. Just make sure to buy a few boxes, as you will not be able to get enough – just like this card,

Sumian: Panda Express. This is a pretty fun card for a Shanghai event, but I will not be watching live, given the prelims start at 12 a.m. PT. Instead, I will go pick up some beef with broccoli and mushroom chicken for lunch, plop on the couch, and watch during lunchtime with some easy, yet tasty, Chinese food.