UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Preview and Predictions

With news of the UFC’s new broadcast deal with Paramount being announced this week, the days of pay-per-view events are numbered. This weekend, the promotion holds perhaps the most highly anticipated event of the year as two stalwarts throw down in the main event of UFC 319 with middleweight gold on the line in Chicago.

Champion Dricus Du Plessis has been on a tear since joining the UFC. He has yet to taste defeat and has beaten the best the division has to offer en route to gaining and defending the championship. He has two wins over former champion Sean Strickland and a submission win over one of the greatest fighters of all time in Israel Adesanya. However, the challenger has an aura around him the likes of which have hardly ever been seen before. Khamzat Chimaev is a destroyer who dispatched former champion Robert Whittaker in less than one round in his most recent fight. The proverbial unstoppable force meets the immovable object this weekend, and it is anyone’s guess as to what happens.

The co-main event is a featherweight clash that came together on shorter notice, but it will definitely pack a punch. Lerone Murphy has yet to lose a professional fight and has been scoring wins over seasoned veterans as he marches to the top of the division. Edson Barboza, Dan Ige, and Josh Emmett all came up short in efforts to take the zero from his loss column. This Saturday, one of the most highly rated prospects in the history of mixed martial arts will attempt to do what none of those veterans could. Aaron Pico is a world class wrestler with boxing skills that Freddie Roach claimed would put him on par with a prime Miguel Cotto. His young career has seen him struggle a bit but he has begun to put together his skills. He draws a tough test in his debut under the UFC banner but will look to shine in the co-main event.

The UFC 319 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.
The style clash in the main event is almost puzzling to comprehend; what powerhouse fighter is able to implement his gameplan?

Sumian: There have been a ton of UFC announcements lately for high-profile bouts in the back half of 2025. Despite those announcements, this is still the most anticipated matchup given the background, styles, and stardom both combatants bring to the Octagon. The middleweight division is littered with contenders and is the strongest it has been in some time. Yet, everybody wants to see Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev go at it more than anything. Whatever happens in this title fight, it is going to be entertaining.

Chimaev’s career has turned out entirely differently than what I would have imagined several years ago. In his last four fights, he has defeated Gilbert Burns, Kevin Holland, Kamaru Usman, and Robert Whittaker. However, he only competed four times in a span of four years and has been plagued with travel issues and significant health concerns.

After winning a questionable decision against Usman at UFC 294, Chimaev seemed to return to form when he made short work of Whittaker, submitting him in brutal fashion. Chimaev’s last performance quickly reminded fans as to why he was once considered one of the most feared prospects in MMA and is capable of finishing any high-level opponent when he is on his A-game. However, he is taking on an entirely different level of competition when he steps into the cage with DDP this Saturday. For Chimaev to realize his dream of becoming a UFC champion, the ‘Borz’ will need to come out in full force.

After du Plessis defeated Trevin Giles by knockout at UFC 264, I was convinced that he was going to one day become a top middleweight contender. Two years later, he obliterated Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 in a number-one contender fight, and the rest is history. Since then, he has captured the middleweight belt and defended it twice against Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. Now, he will take on one of the most feared contenders in the game in Chimaev. What’s fascinating to me is that du Plessis specifically wanted to be the one to fight Chimaev, so he could hand him his first defeat. There does not seem to be anything du Plessis fears in this world, and his cardio and consistent pressure is living proof of that notion. If the champ is able to take out Chimaev this weekend, it could be the start of a long title run for the South African native.

This has probably been said by most MMA media at this point, but Chimaev has two and a half rounds to win this fight. We have seen enough from both men to know that, if the champ is able to drag this into the second half of the fight, then he should be able to tire out the ultra-aggressive Chimaev and either finish him or squeak out a unanimous decision. This does not mean du Plessis cannot finish the challenger early, but it is the less likely outcome. For Chimaev, it will be important to know when to be aggressive, but also cautious, given du Plessis’s ability to counter and take big shots while coming forward. The challenger will likely do everything possible to shoot for a takedown early and secure a favorable position. From there, it will be up to the champion to defend and get back to his feet. For the champion, it is all about weathering the storm and finding precise moments to land some crisp combinations and kicks to slow down the pace of Chimaev.

This is going to be fun, no matter how long it lasts. Both combatants are two of the most exciting fighters in the middleweight division, and they tend to make a lasting impression every time they step foot inside the Octagon. The betting lines have Chimaev as the favorite, but I think this is a mistake. Frankly, the career of Chimaev has not been nearly as impressive as it was poised to be when he first started in the UFC. The champion’s experience, toughness, and neverending cardio is going to play a huge factor here, and I believe he will be able to drag this into the fourth round and secure a TKO victory.

Petela: Anyone who claims to know for sure how this fight is going to go is either a liar or wildly overconfident in their level of expertise. Dricus du Plessis brings to life the first time you play a new video game and just mash buttons to find what works. He does it better than anyone else, and, despite his unorthodox approach to fighting, he is incredibly difficult to fight. How do you gameplan for someone who uses his face to block punches and throws punches as if he was trying to win the 200 meter medley swim in the Olympics? Very carefully, I suppose.

Khamzat Chimaev is not the most careful fighter in the world. He has an amazing ability to secure takedowns and beat the tar out of his opponents, but, with that ability comes some vulnerability. I think the wild way that du Plessis closes distance will give Chimaev fits. The champion won’t be in one place long enough for the challenger to grab onto him. Eventually, Du Plessis will land a bomb while doing his best impression of the inflatable waving tube man outside a car dealership and stun Chimaev long enough to get off a clean follow-up shot that floors the challenger and leads to a knockout win for the incumbent.

Aaron Pico makes his long-awaited UFC debut; will the highly touted prospect be able to hand Lerone Murphy his first professional loss?

Petela: This fight bums me out. Aaron Pico is a dynamic puncher with a world class wrestling background. When he is on point, he can put on a show like few other fighters. However, he has a tough draw in his first fight with the promotion. Looking good against Lerone Murphy is tough. In fact, nobody has done it yet.

I don’t think that Pico is overhyped, per se, but I do think that joining the biggest global promotion that has the best fighters in the world will slow down his trajectory. He will pick up some good wins, and might have his name mentioned as potential title contenders, but it won’t be a rocket ship to the top. Murphy will play spoiler this weekend by keeping Pico at distance and avoiding danger. It won’t be a fight to remember, as most of Murphy’s fights aren’t, but it will be a major statement for the British fighter. He will be able to take some of the promotional momentum from Pico and will find himself on track to compete for the title with one or two more victories, much like his countryman Leon Edwards did in the welterweight division. It will be a disappointing debut for Pico, but he will eventually bounce back and have a solid run inside the UFC before his career is over.

Sumian: Aaron Pico’s last three opponents have been Henry Corrales (4-5 in his last nine fights), Pedro Carvalho (2-7 in his last nine fights), and James Gonzalez (4-5 in his last nine fights). I get that Bellator’s goal for Pico was to build him up against below-average competition, but this has now been going on for almost eight years now. Franky, the UFC newcomer has beat up on a bunch of hand-picked opponents and has still had moments of struggle. Now, he is coming up to the big leagues and is going to face the toughest test of his MMA career in Lerone Murphy.

All I can say is that Pico is lucky Movsar Evloev pulled out, but there would have been no chance of him winning UFC debut against Evloev. Despite my negativity, I respect Pico as a competitor, and he has thunderous knockout power backed by a powerful wrestling background. However, I just do not see this debut going well for him. Murphy is a low-risk fighter that fights in an extremely calculated manner and sticks to a gameplan. He has faced much better competition than Pico, as the competition gap will be evident on Saturday night. Murphy by TKO.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 318?

Sumian: I really wish Michael “Venom” Page was younger. He waited way too long to come to the UFC, but we are enjoying it while we have him. I believe he is a nightmare matchup for Jared Cannonier, and will knock him out in the second round. This will secure MVP a top-10 middleweight ranking. Unfortunately, the middleweight division is top-heavy at the moment, and it seems unlikely that the Brit will fight for a title in the UFC before his career is over.

Petela: Reinier de Ridder. He scored a huge win over Robert Whittaker in his first UFC main event and is now being mentioned as a potential next title challenger. With Du Plessis retaining his title this weekend, it will have fans clamoring for a showdown between the two unorthodox fighters where anything could happen.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 318?

Petela: It has to be Khamzat Chimaev. The mystique of invincibility will be gone after losing to Dricus du Plessis this weekend. I don’t think it means the end of his career by any stretch of the imagination but people will stop trying to avoid fighting him, once there is a blueprint for how to nullify his style. He gets exposed a bit this weekend.

Sumian: Having a hard time coming up with one for this event, but I guess I will go with Goeff Neal, simply because he will be 1-3 in his last four UFC fights and is quickly approaching 35 years old. Carlos Prates may not be able to knock him out, but will win a fairly one sided decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It is getting harder and harder watching King Green lose in brutal fashion. Unfortunately, I can see Carlos Diego Ferreira dropping him and then putting him to sleep with a quick submission. That will make three finishes in a row for the 38-year-old. It may be time to ride off into the sunset.

Petela: Gerald Meerschaert. GM3 needs a win in the worst way. He has dropped two fights in a row and has dropped four out of his last six outings. If he drops to 0-3, at almost 38 years old, it is likely the end of the road for the grappling ace.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper. This fight piques my interest, because I could see it going a number of different ways. Hooper is obviously a prolific grappler, and will likely have the best shot at winning the fight if he gets it to the canvas, but his striking has improved notably over the past two years. I’m curious to see Hernandez’s gameplan in this one and see how he tries to stay safe while also doing enough to look good in the eyes of the judges.

Sumian: There are so many good fights on this card, but the flyweight matchup between Tim Elliot and Kai Asakura is going to be electric from start to finish. This will be Asakura’s time to shine, and Elliot is a tough and durable matchup for any top flyweight.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Michael “Venom” Page. I am convinced he is going to finish Jared Canonnier in impressive fashion. This would be a really good time to think about Page versus Adesanya.

Petela: Carlos Prates. He was finishing everybody until he fought Ian Machado Garry. Coming into this fight with Geoff Neal, Prates is going to be looking to rebound with a bang, and Neal will be a willing dance partner. Prates hits just as hard, if not harder, than Neal, and he will get back to his finishing ways in this one.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Pizza, but real New-York-style pizza, not the casserole they try to pass off as a pie in Chicago. Mainly to rub it in the faces of anyone who says that Chicago-style pizza is superior or even on a similar level to real pizza, but also because it’s best served piping hot just like the main event. It is going to get steamy early on once the two middleweights lock horns.

Sumian: Thick and fluffy Chicago-style pizza. Like Chicago pizza, this card is stacked from top to bottom for hardcore MMA fans. It may not have a name like Max Holloway or Alex Pereira attached to it, but it is loaded from top to bottom with fights for true MMA fans. Sit back, relax, and enjoy what should be one of the best cards of the year.