UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Preview and Predictions

As they say, all good things must end and this weekend one of the greatest careers in modern mixed martial arts comes to a close as Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier makes his final walk to the Octagon in front of fans in his home state of Louisiana. He and his opponent, Max “Blessed” Holloway are far from strangers as the pair have met twice before. Poirier is 2-0 in those meetings and looks to become the second fighter to make it three wins and no losses against Holloway, joining featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski who bested Holloway in all three of their fights. More than just a retirement fight and a trilogy, also on the line is the esteemed BMF belt. Holloway took the belt from Justin Gaethje, who had previously earned it in a win over Poirier.

The co-main event is a middleweight showdown between former title challenger Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov. Costa has won just a single fight since 2020 when he lost his championship bid against Israel Adesanya. He will try to get back on track against Kopylov, who is on the opposite trajectory. The Russian fighter has won two straight and has just one defeat in his last seven outings.

Also on the main card is a can’t miss welterweight clash between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez. Long known as an entertainer first and contender second, Holland is looking to make a serious run at welterweight and has an opportunity to prove to the UFC brass and fans alike that he is more than just a loud mouth who sounds good on the microphone.

The early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

The storylines for the main event are plentiful; what will be the biggest takeaway after these two legends meet for a third time?

Sumian: I truly cannot think of a better way to send Dustin Poirier off than facing Max Holloway in his final fight of a storied career. Having this fight take place in New Orleans makes this final appearance even sweeter and should provide fans with an unforgettable night. Make no mistake, these two men are going to try and demolish each other despite the massive amount of respect they have for one another.

Max Holloway is certainly in a weird position at this point in his career. He most recently lost for the time by knockout to former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and now finds himself in the same situation given Topuria’s move to lightweight. For Holloway, a win over Poirier does not really do much for his title aspirations and he will likely have to face another top tier lightweight to secure a crack at the lightweight belt. Still, Holloway has proven he is one of the best fighters on the UFC roster and is capable of defeating 99% of the roster if he is on his game. The biggest question going into this fight is how Holloway’s chin will hold up after suffering the first knockout loss of his career. Poirier doesn’t particularly have one punch knockout power but is capable of hurting his opponents and using his precision and accuracy to finish fights viciously and quickly. Holloway will need to rely on his prolific boxing and movement to take out one of the best lightweights to ever do it.

For those who do not know, Dustin Poirier is my favorite UFC fighter of all time and I have been following his career since his early days prior to WEC and UFC. He is one of the most beloved fighters in UFC history and it is hard to imagine a world where he is no longer competing in mixed martial arts. However, props to Poirier on realizing it is time and setting up a fairytale ending to a career that will not be forgotten. Poirier has defeated Holloway twice but I believe that Holloway is better than he was even since the second time they fought. Poirier will need to be on his A game to defeat one of the top 25 fighters of all time and successfully ride off into the sunset.

As much as I want Poirier to win in his last octagon appearance, this is a truly tough fight to call. Both men are great at what they do. Holloway’s boxing is elite and he will not take it easy on the hometown favorite. Similarly, Poirier is a crisp and calculated striker that is capable of dismantling any lightweight that stands and trades with him. Unfortunately for Holloway, I do believe the Topuria loss is going to play a factor here. Poirier hits harder and is going to be able to avoid Holloway’s flurries. In round three, Poirier will land a precise 3-2 combo that will stun the BMF champion. He will unload on Holloway until the referee intervenes and calls it a night. Fairytale ending achieved.

Petela: This fight had me so excited when it was announced, until it sank in that someone had to lose. Fan favorites, legends, toughness, next level heart, these two both have it all. Beyond the intangibles, they are also both absolutely the best of the best strikers we have seen in this era of mixed martial arts. As we saw in their first two fights, especially the rematch, they make great dance partners. More people would talk about their second fight if it didn’t get overshadowed by one of the greatest fights of all time in Adesanya vs. Gastelum.

Are they both in their prime? Maybe not but I, along with hundreds of thousands of other fans, will probably never admit that to themselves. These two epitomize fighters that we wish could fight forever. Just thinking about this fight has a knot in my stomach because as heartwarming as it will be for the winner, it will be just as soul crushing for the loser. Unfortunately, this is real life and not Rocky III so there won’t be any freeze frame ending but with the fight being in Louisiana the closest thing to a story book ending would be the see Poirier leave the cage with the BMF belt being carried by his wife and the “Diamond” carrying his daughter down the steps. It doesn’t happen nearly enough but I’m not only hoping that is what happens, I’m predicting it as well. I think Poirier will be the bigger puncher and will land the more impactful shots. Another twenty-five minute war that goes in the hometown hero’s favor.

Paulo Costa has lost four of his last five fights; can he overcome the nonsense from outside the cage and look like the Costa of old this weekend?

Petela: Not a chance. The guy who beat Yoel Romero is long gone and we will never see him again. That guy could have been a world champion with just a little bit of intestinal fortitude. Israel Adesanya broke him, physically and mentally. It wasn’t the typical type of beating that fighters don’t recover from, rather it was the realization that no matter what he did on that night, Costa was not going to win. His brain gave up on him before his body which might have saved him some physical trauma but he has never been able to get back to prime form since that night. For a brief moment, the marauding Costa of old looked to have returned against Luke Rockhold but we quickly learned that Costa’s performance that night had much more to do with Rockhold being a shell of himself than it did Costa returning to elite form.

This is a fight for Kopylov to introduce himself to the masses and build a reputation off of a big name. I think Kopylov will be able to control the pace and distance, stopping Costa from lumbering forward and landing anything wild that could be fight ending. A technical performance, Kopylov will score a unanimous decision and Costa will look as puzzled as ever after the fight and probably more emotional after the decision is read than he is in between the opening and closing bells.

Sumian: It is a shame to see a fighter like Paulo Costa falter in the second half of his career. This man had so much potential and I truly believed he was on the path to becoming one of the best and most exciting middleweights to ever compete in the octagon. However, it does not seem like he is taking the fight game as seriously as he should.

On the other hand, Kopylov is hungry and currently riding a nice two fight win streak. I do not believe he has enough to finish Costa but he will land the more meaningful shots and win a pretty clear 29-28 decision. There is always a world where Costa can go into beast mode and pull of a stunning knockout but it is hard to imagine at this point in time.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 318?

Sumian: Daniel Zellhuber. He is coming off a fight of the year contender and is only 26 years old. Booking him against Michael Johnson is certainly a strategic move on the UFC’s part but the veteran is no slouch and is currently on a two fight win streak himself. However, Zellhuber will win this fight and kick off the main card with a bang. He will finish Johnson, earn a bonus and probably face a top 25 lightweight in his next UFC appearance.

Petela: Fans. We get to see perhaps one of the most legendary trilogies in UFC history and not a single one of the fights had an undisputed title on the line. That speaks to how important these two fighters are in this era and how lucky we all are to get to see them throw down one more time.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 318?

Petela: Fans. This is the last time we get to see Dustin Poirier fight, which sucks. Not that I am delusional enough to think that he could fight at an elite level forever but it sure would be great if he could. He has become impossible to dislike as a veteran fighter and he puts on a show every time.

Sumian: Marvin Vettori. I think he loses to Brendan Allen on Saturday and I truly don’t know where he goes from there. He is only 31 years old but will be 1-4 in his fast five fights.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Jimmy Crute. He has one of the craziest records in his last five fights (0-3-2). This is a must win scenario for the former prospect.

Petela: Patricio Pitbull. He didn’t look great in his UFC debut and the longtime Bellator champion surely needs to perform well to earn his hefty paycheck. If he loses to Dan Ige, or even wins a lackluster decision, the UFC might not be keen on keeping the aging former superstar on the roster.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen. A crossroads fight for sure, Vettori needs a statement win to prove to people he is more than just a gatekeeper and Allen needs a win to show people he can be more than just a fun, decent fighter who deserves a spot on the roster but won’t be mentioned among the best of the best.

Sumian: I think Kyler Phillips versus Vinicius Oliveira is going to be awesome. This is a huge test for Oliveira and both men will be eager to make a statement. This should be a fun back and forth affair between two exciting bantamweights.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Ateba Abega Gautier. This is a showcase fight for the Cameroon native and he will not disappoint. He will finish Robert Valentin in impressive fashion and start making a name for himself as an up and coming contender.

Petela: Kevin Holland. Going against Daniel Rodriguez, Holland should have the perfect opponent to put on a show. Rodríguez will push forward, and he isn’t exactly known for having the world’s greatest defense. This one will be a back and forth clash for a while but as the fight gets into the latter portions of the contest the damage will affect “D-Rod” more than the “Trailblazer.” A third round stoppage will get Holland the win and if they don’t end up with Fight of the Night, he will definitely get a solo post-fight bonus.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A box of tissues. This is Dustin Poirier’s final fight so the tears will be plentiful. He has been the favorite fighter for an entire generation of fight fans and win or lose he will have thousands of fans fighting back the water works.

Sumian: “He was a son of Rome, Honor Him.” This quote was famously said at the ending of Gladiator, one of the greatest movies ever made. The same applies for Dustin Poirier, but as a son of MMA and the UFC. He has been a company man and has always carried himself with honor, respect and maturity. Poirier is one of the best role models for not only young fighters, but young individuals in general. We will truly miss him/